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China's Economic Recovery Spurs Positive Growth Forecasts

Source: | 2023-12-20 11:27:08 | Author:

A view of Beijing's CBD area. (PHOTO: VCG)
By Staff Reporters

Chinese leaders decided the priorities for the economic work in 2024 at the annual Central Economic Work Conference held in Beijing last week.

It was noted at the meeting that China's economy has achieved recovery, with progress made in high-quality development in 2023. Projections from international organizations also validated the resilience and positive trajectory of the Chinese economy.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects the Chinese economy "to meet the government's 2023 growth target of around 5 percent, and this reflects the post-COVID recovery," IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack said at a press briefing.

The forecasts by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the World Bank are slightly higher on December 13, the ADB revised upward its 2023 growth estimate for China to 5.2 percent from 4.9 percent.

The World Bank estimates that China's economy would grow 5.2 percent in 2023, propelled by gradual recovery of consumer sentiment and policy stimulus.

As global growth is projected to remain tepid at 2.4 percent next year, the world's second-largest economy is expected to expand by 4.5 percent in 2024, according to the latest China Economic Update released by the World Bank on December 14.

Investors are closely watching for clues to next year's policy and reform agenda as China's economy shows strong post-pandemic recovery. J.P.Morgan Private Bankers posted an article on its website in December, titled "Where is the Chinese economy heading in 2024?" It said for investors, "policies encouraging innovation and supporting the digital economy bolster our positive view on large cap China internet stocks, especially after the recent correction."

Efforts to attract foreign investment are evident. The government is becoming more open to foreign concerns, providing greater access to officials, according to Julian Fisher, chair of the British Chamber of Commerce in China.

Last month, the government highlighted issues impeding foreign business, such as regional laws that impose longer licensing procedures on foreign businesses compared with domestic companies, according to the Financial Times.

"That really has shifted, this year has seen a lot more action," Fisher told the Financial Times. He said one example was China's recent acceptance of some UK vocational education qualifications after a specific British request.

Looking ahead to 2024, PricewaterhouseCoopers China's senior economist G. Bin Zhao anticipated a pick-up in China's GDP growth. Zhao told Forbes that private sector investment is expected to rise from the previous year's low, and government measures aimed at supporting the economy are predicted to yield positive results.

As for stimulus, Zhao said China's annual budget deficit in 2023, estimated to be 3.8 percent of the GDP, was relatively low compared with the United States', leaving room to offset unexpected weakness in 2024.

Editor: 梁依莲

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