Here are the three big things the U.S. gets wrong on China:

First, while many outcomes are possible, China is neither about to collapse nor about to take over the world. China’s gross domestic product per capita is just a quarter of the U.S. level, and if there’s one thing the country’s policymakers are demonstrably good at, it’s planning a path up the ladder from low to high income.

Second, there’s more continuity than change in China’s social controls, and China views shifts in the U.S. position as cynically self-serving. The challenge for the U.S.: Frame a China policy that’s aligned with its values but doesn’t come at the expense of broader strategic objectives. That means more consistent policies and disciplined rhetoric than currently in evidence.

Third, China’s rapid economic rise hasn’t been achieved primarily, or even to a significant degree, by cheating the U.S. The main drivers of China’s economic miracle are clear: a billion-strong population provides an abundant workforce and the ability to achieve massive economies of scale.

Tom Orlik, The US Is Wrong About China. Here’s How to Get Back on Track, Bloomberg, 11-08-2023.